As Malaysia’s political landscape continues to shift, the focus is now turning to the Sabah state elections, where the question is: Should Anwar Ibrahim, the current Prime Minister, brace himself for a Pakatan Harapan (PH) wipeout in the state? The Sabah state elections, which are expected to be held in the near future, will be a critical test for Anwar’s leadership and Pakatan Harapan’s strength in East Malaysia.
To understand whether Anwar and PH could face a wipeout, we must consider several factors—ranging from local dynamics to national political trends, as well as the specific challenges PH faces in the region.
1. Local Political Dynamics:
Sabah has always had a unique political landscape, characterized by complex coalition politics. While Pakatan Harapan has enjoyed some success in Sabah since the 14th General Election (GE14), the political environment there is fluid, and alliances tend to shift frequently. Since the formation of the current federal government, PH’s role in Sabah has been challenged by defections, internal strife, and the entrance of new political players.
Sabah’s politics have traditionally been dominated by local parties like Warisan, led by Shafie Apdal, and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), a coalition that includes the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). Both parties, particularly Warisan, have a strong regional base and have cultivated a sense of Sabahan identity, often positioning themselves as alternatives to Peninsular Malaysia-dominated coalitions like PH.
2. Warisan’s Resurgence:
Warisan, led by former Chief Minister Shafie Apdal, has been gaining significant momentum in Sabah. Following the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan-led federal government in 2020, Warisan positioned itself as the primary opposition party in the state. The party’s ability to connect with local voters, particularly through its platform of Sabah autonomy and regional development, makes it a serious threat to PH in the upcoming elections.
Shafie Apdal has also consistently emphasized his opposition to the dominance of Kuala Lumpur-based political parties in Sabah’s affairs, which resonates with many Sabahans. Warisan’s appeal to local pride and its advocacy for greater control over Sabah’s resources has helped the party maintain a solid voter base, particularly among rural and indigenous communities.
3. The Rising Influence of GRS:
GRS, a coalition that includes parties like UMNO, Bersatu, and several Sabah-based factions, has emerged as another formidable force in Sabah politics. The federal government, led by Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan, has managed to work out a political arrangement with GRS, but it is a partnership that remains fragile and prone to friction, particularly when it comes to the sharing of power and resources in the state.
GRS’s ability to rally support among ethnic Malay-Muslim voters in Sabah has positioned it as a strong contender in the state elections. Given its coalition with the federal government, GRS has access to federal resources, which it can use to its advantage in the election campaign. If GRS manages to consolidate its position and further solidify support among the Malay-Muslim population, it could further erode PH’s chances of securing a significant foothold in the state.
4. Pakatan Harapan’s Weaknesses:
PH’s position in Sabah is precarious for a number of reasons. Firstly, it faces competition from local parties like Warisan and GRS, which have a more direct connection to the local electorate. Secondly, the infighting within PH’s Sabah chapter has weakened its prospects. Several key leaders have either defected to other parties or become disillusioned with the coalition, undermining PH’s ability to present a united front in the state.
Furthermore, PH’s political strategies often appear disconnected from the concerns of Sabahans. National policies, while important, are often seen as less relevant to voters in Sabah who are more concerned with regional autonomy, resource allocation, and local economic development. Pakatan Harapan has struggled to frame its policies in a way that appeals directly to these concerns.
5. Voter Sentiment and Ethnic Dynamics:
Sabah’s population is ethnically diverse, with a large number of indigenous groups and a significant Chinese and Malay Muslim demographic. The state has long been a battleground for ethnic-based politics, and parties must carefully navigate these dynamics to win votes.
Pakatan Harapan’s predominantly Malay-dominated leadership has at times struggled to gain the trust of Sabah’s indigenous and non-Muslim communities, who may view PH’s leadership as disconnected from their unique needs. Warisan, on the other hand, has done a better job of tapping into the aspirations of indigenous groups, framing itself as a protector of native rights and regional autonomy.
Moreover, the ongoing issues of illegal immigration and the question of citizenship for undocumented migrants in Sabah continue to be contentious issues. PH’s stance on these matters, including the handling of the “Project IC” controversy, may alienate voters who view these issues as critical to Sabah’s future.
6. Federal Government and Anwar’s Role:
Anwar Ibrahim, as the Prime Minister of Malaysia, holds significant sway over the political landscape in Sabah. However, his government’s ability to balance the competing interests of the parties within the federal coalition—especially the contentious relationship with local partners like GRS and Warisan—could backfire.
If Anwar fails to deliver on promises made to Sabahans, particularly in terms of development and autonomy, PH could lose significant ground in the state. The perception that Anwar and his government are too focused on peninsular issues could further diminish PH’s support among Sabah’s electorate. Additionally, if local partners like Warisan and GRS continue to present themselves as more attuned to the needs of Sabahans, PH could find itself in a defensive position.
7. The Role of the Grassroots:
At the grassroots level, local issues such as infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic development are top priorities for voters in Sabah. PH must demonstrate that it has a solid plan for addressing these issues if it hopes to win over undecided voters or challenge the dominance of Warisan and GRS.
Sabah’s electorate has proven to be pragmatic and sensitive to the political environment. If PH is seen as offering real solutions to these issues, it could still perform well in urban areas like Kota Kinabalu. However, in rural constituencies, Warisan and GRS may have an edge due to their more localized appeal.
Conclusion: A Wipeout or a Close Contest?
While it may be too early to predict a complete wipeout for Anwar and Pakatan Harapan in the Sabah state elections, the situation is undoubtedly dire. PH faces significant challenges, particularly from Warisan’s continued strength and GRS’s growing influence. The party will need to overcome internal divisions, reconnect with local voters, and offer a compelling regional vision to avoid a disastrous result.
Anwar’s leadership in the national government will be closely scrutinized, and if his administration fails to address the specific needs and aspirations of Sabahans, PH may find itself struggling to retain any meaningful presence in the state. However, if PH can recalibrate its strategies, forge stronger local alliances, and deliver tangible benefits to Sabah, it could still hold on to a foothold, even if a wipeout seems unlikely at this stage.
The upcoming Sabah state elections will be a pivotal moment, not just for Anwar Ibrahim, but for the future of Pakatan Harapan in East Malaysia. It’s clear that the outcome will depend heavily on how well PH can navigate the complex and shifting political currents in the state.
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